COMPETING FOR ATTENTION: A MATHEMATICAL MODEL OF CONTENT VISIBILITY AND AUDIENCE ENGAGEMENT IN ONLINE MEDIA

Abstract [English]

In the contemporary digital media landscape, content creators and platform curators face the challenge of understanding why certain articles achieve viral reach while others remain largely invisible. This study applies the Lotka-Volterra predator-prey model an ecological framework traditionally used to describe population dynamics to analyse the competitive engagement patterns between high-engagement and low-engagement articles on Mashable, a major digital media platform. Drawing on the Online News Popularity dataset, which encompasses 39,644 articles with 58 predictive features including keyword density, multimedia elements, sentiment polarity, and publication timing, we derive four key interaction parameters (α, β, δ, γ) that govern engagement growth, competitive suppression, conversion, and decay. Stability analysis of the resulting differential equation system reveals four equilibrium points, of which the interior equilibrium exhibits purely imaginary eigenvalues (λ = ±31.07i), indicative of sustained oscillatory dynamics. These cycles mirror the rhythmic patterns observed in broadcast scheduling and editorial curation, where viral content surges suppress background coverage until audience attention redistributes. The findings demonstrate that mathematical ecology offers a novel analytical lens for media professionals, content strategists, and digital arts practitioners seeking to understand and optimise audience engagement over time.