CONSUMER SPENDING IN INDIA (2016–2018): EARLY INDICATORS OF DEMAND CONTRACTION, REGIONAL INSIGHTS, AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS

Abstract [English]

Consumer spending, contributing approximately 60% to India’s gross domestic product (GDP), is a key driver of economic growth. In 2019–20, GDP growth slowed to 4.2%, reflecting a consumption slowdown with early indicators evident from 2016 to 2018 [4]. This study analyses these indicators across rural and urban India, emphasizing regional disparities. Using data from the National Sample Survey Office (NSSO), Reserve Bank of India (RBI), Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE), Nielsen India, and Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM), we identify declining rural wages, stagnant household incomes, and reduced fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) and automobile sales. Econometric models quantify the impact of structural factors. Agrarian states like Bihar showed steeper consumption declines than industrialized states like Maharashtra. Trends from 2016–17, intensifying by 2018, were driven by rural distress and jobless growth. Descriptive statistics, correlation analysis, and regression models highlight household behavioural shifts and macroeconomic vulnerabilities. Policy recommendations include enhanced rural income support and credit access reforms to sustain India’s consumption-driven economy.