MANAGING UNCERTAINTIES VIA AN EMBEDDED FORESIGHT REGIMEN IN THE NATIONAL POLICY PLANNINGARCHITECTURE
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.29121/ijetmr.v5.i6.2018.241Keywords:
Foresight, National Policy Planning Architecture, Quadruple Helix Model, Open Source Intelligence, Complexity TheoryAbstract
National policy planning can be a relatively tortuous process due to rising cross-sectoral complexities and bloated government structures. It is also becoming increasingly difficult to maintain the relevance of national policies in a rapidly-changing global environment. This paper posits that long-term policy relevance can be sustained by embedding a foresight regimen throughout the national policy planning architecture. The proposed foresight template is predicated to enable the monitoring of phases and milestones in the national policy process and thereby be continually adaptable in sync with evolving external developments and internal needs. Malaysia’s automobile industry formed a partial backdrop during the development of this concept paper.
Downloads
References
Bell, W. Foundations of Futures Studies: Human Science for a New Era. New Brunswick, New Jersey, USA: Transaction Publishers (1997).
Berkhout, F., Hertin, J. and Jordan, A. Socio-economic futures in climate change impact assessment: using scenarios as ‘learning machines’. Tyndall Centre Working Paper No. 3 p3,4 July 2001.
Da Costa, O., Warnkea, P., Cagnina, C. &Scapoloa, F. The impact of foresight on policy-making: insights from the FORLEARN mutual learning process. Technology Analysis & Strategic Management Volume 20, Issue 3, (2008).
Voros, J. A Generic Foresight Process Framework, Foresight, 5 (3): 10-21. (2003) DOI: https://doi.org/10.1108/14636680310698379
EEA. BLOSSOM — Bridging long-term scenario and strategy analysis: organisation and methods. EEA Technical report No 5 (2011).
Rohrbeck, R. Corporate Foresight: An Emerging Field with a Rich Tradition.
Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2015.Special Issue on “Corporate Foresight”(2015).
Katsioloudes, M.I. Strategic Management, Global Cultural perspectives for profit and non-profit organisation, p 2-6. Burlington, MA, Elsevier Butterworth-Heinemann(2006).
Kuosa, T. The Evolution of Strategic Foresight. Ashgate Publishing (2011).
Ejdys J. Overcoming Problems Associated with Uncertainty of the Environment by using Foresight Approach. Economics and Management: 2013. 18 (2).(2013) DOI: https://doi.org/10.5755/j01.em.18.2.4062
EPU. Economic Planning Unit, Government of Malaysia. Published on Feb 28, 1991.
ASM.Science Outlook 2015, AkademiSains Malaysia.(2015).
Rushkoff, D. Present Shock: When Everything Happens Now. New York : Current (2013)
Nielsen. Rising middle class will drive global automotive demand in the coming two years. Nielsen press release. April 16, 2014.
Kurzweil, R. The Age of Spiritual Machines: When Computers Exceed Human Intelligence. London: Penguin Books (2000)
Maavak, M. Class Warfare, Anarchy and the Future Society. Journal of Futures Studies, December 2012, 17(2): 15-36
UNDP. Foresight as a Strategic Long-Term Planning Tool for Developing Countries, UNDP (2014)
Eisenhardt, K.M. and Piezunka H. Complexity Theory and Corporate Strategy. The Sage Handbook of Complexity and Management. Eds. Peter Allen & Steve Maguire & Bill McKelvey,(2011). Chapter 29, pp 506-523. DOI: https://doi.org/10.4135/9781446201084.n30
Davis, J.P., Eisenhardt, K.M. & Bingham, C.B. Optimal Structure, Market Dynamism, and the Strategy of Simple Rules. Administrative Science Quarterly, 54 (2009): 413–452 DOI: https://doi.org/10.2189/asqu.2009.54.3.413
Kauffman, S.A. At Home in the Universe: The Search for Laws of Self-organization and Complexity. Oxford University Press, USA (1995)
Eisenhardt, K.M. and Piezunka H. Complexity Theory and Corporate Strategy. The Sage Handbook of Complexity and Management. Eds. Peter Allen & Steve Maguire & Bill McKelvey, (2011). Chapter 29, pp 506-523. DOI: https://doi.org/10.4135/9781446201084.n30
Kauffman, S.A. At Home in the Universe: The Search for Laws of Self-organization and Complexity. Oxford University Press, USA (1995)
Sharif, A. Comparative Strategies Elevating SMEs to the Next Level, SME CORP, Malaysia (2010).
Langton, C.G. Computation at the edge of chaos. Physica D 42 (1990). Elsevier Science Publishers BV (North Holland). DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/0167-2789(90)90064-V
Stacey R.D. Strategic management and organisational dynamics: the challenge of complexity. Harlow: Prentice Hall, Harlow, 3rd ed. (2002)
Straits Times (2016). Najib-Mahathir clash: Proton in for a bumpy ride. Straits Times, March 20, 2016. Accessed on June 30, 2016 from: https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/se-asia/najib-mahathirclash-proton-in-for-a-bumpy-ride
Zero Hedge (2016). “Deutsche Bank Poses The Greatest Risk To The Global Financial System": IMF. Zero Hedge online, June 29, 2016. Accessed on July 30 2016 from: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-06-29/imf-deutsche-bank-poses-greatest-risk-globalfinancial-system
Galunic, D.C. &Eisenhardt, K.M. Architectural innovation and modular corporate forms. Academy of Management Journal, 44: 1229–1249.(2001) DOI: https://doi.org/10.5465/3069398
Eisenhardt, K.M. & Brown, S.L. Patching: restitching business portfolios in dynamic markets. Harvard Business Review, 77(3): 72–82.(1999)
UNDP. Foresight as a Strategic Long-Term Planning Tool for Developing Countries, UNDP (2014).
Rakhmatullin R. Triple/Quadruple Helix in the context of Smart Specialisation. Business Clusters, Networks and Economic Development (BCNED) presentation, University of Surrey, UK (29-30 May, 2014).
Chesbrough, H.W.Open Innovation: The New Imperative for Creating and Profiting from Technology. Boston, Mass: Harvard Business School Press (2003).
Bonazzi, FLZ and Zilber, MA (2014). Innovation and Business Model: a case study about integration of Innovation Funnel and Business Model Canvas. Review of Business Management. São Paulo, Vol. 16, No. 53, pp. 616-637, Oct./Dec. 2014
Smith, B. Brexit: Global Trigger Event, Fake Out Or Something Else? Alt- market.com, June 22, 2016. Accessed on June 30 2016 from
http://www.alt-market.com/articles/2931-brexit-global-trigger-event-fake-out-or-something- else
Calof, J. & Smith, J. Critical Success Factors for Government-led Foresight. Science and Public Policy, 37 (1), February 2010, pp. 31-40. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3152/030234210X484784
Havas A., Schartinger D. and Weber, M. The impact of foresight on innovation policy-making: recent experiences and future perspectives. Research Evaluation, June 2010. pp91–104.
Eriksson, A.&Weber, M. Adaptive foresight: navigating the complex landscape of policy strategies. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 75(4), 462–482.(2008) DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2008.02.006
Truffer, B, J-P Voss and K Konrad Mapping Expectations for system transformations. lessons for sustainability foresight in German utility sectors. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 75(9), 1360–1372 (2008). DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2008.04.001
EEA. BLOSSOM — Bridging long-term scenario and strategy analysis: organisation and methods. EEA Technical report No 5 (2011).
Kadtke, J. & Wells II, L. Policy Challenges of Accelerating Technological Change: Security Policy and Strategy Implications of Parallel Scientific Revolutions. Center for Technology and National Security Policy (CTNSP) National Defense University (NDU). September 2014, p3
Havas A., Schartinger D. and Weber, M. The impact of foresight on innovation policy-making: recent experiences and future perspectives. Research Evaluation, June 2010. pp91–104. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3152/095820210X510133
Fuerth, L. Operationalizing anticipatory governance. Prism 2, no. 4 (2011): 38.
Barben, D., Fisher, E., Selin, C., &Guston, D. H. Anticipatory governance of nanotechnology: Foresight, engagement and integration. In E. J. Hackett, O. Amsterdamska, M. Lynch, & J. Wajcman (Eds.), the handbook of science and technology studies (pp. 979– 1000). Cambridge, MA: MIT Press (2007).
Barder, O. Complexity, adaptation, and result. Blogpost from Centre for Global Development website, September 7, 2012.
UNDP. Foresight as a Strategic Long-Term Planning Tool for Developing Countries, UNDP (2014).
Zainal, K. Reviewing whole-of-government collaboration in the Singapore public service. Ethos 9, June 2011.
Popper, R. Grand Challenges and S&T Foresight. Special Course Module, June 26- 30, 2012.University of Manchester.
Havas A., Schartinger D. and Weber, M. The impact of foresight on innovation policy-making: recent experiences and future perspectives. Research Evaluation, June 2010. Pp91–104. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3152/095820210X510133
Toffler, A. Future shock. New York: Random House (1970).
Gelatt, H.B. Future sense: Creating the future. The Futurist, 27, 9-13(1993)
PSD. Conversations for the Future. Singapore’s Experiences with Strategic Planning (1988-2011), Vol I. p8. (2011)
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
License and Copyright Agreement
In submitting the manuscript to the journal, the authors certify that:
- They are authorized by their co-authors to enter into these arrangements.
- The work described has not been formally published before, except in the form of an abstract or as part of a published lecture, review, thesis, or overlay journal.
- That it is not under consideration for publication elsewhere.
- That its release has been approved by all the author(s) and by the responsible authorities – tacitly or explicitly – of the institutes where the work has been carried out.
- They secure the right to reproduce any material that has already been published or copyrighted elsewhere.
- They agree to the following license and copyright agreement.
Copyright
Authors who publish with International Journal of Engineering Technologies and Management Research agree to the following terms:
- Authors retain copyright and grant the journal right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY-SA 4.0) that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgment of the work's authorship and initial publication in this journal.
- Authors can enter into separate, additional contractual arrangements for the non-exclusive distribution of the journal's published version of the work (e.g., post it to an institutional repository or edit it in a book), with an acknowledgment of its initial publication in this journal.
- Authors are permitted and encouraged to post their work online (e.g., in institutional repositories or on their website) before and during the submission process, as it can lead to productive exchanges, as well as earlier and greater citation of published work.
For More info, please visit CopyRight Section