ESTIMATING ATMOSPHERIC CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS THRESHOLD FOR NIGERIA: A GUIDE FOR ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY

Authors

  • Aliyu Alhaji Jibrilla Department of Economics, Faculty of Social and Management Sciences, Adamawa State University, Mubi, Nigeria

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.29121/granthaalayah.v6.i9.2018.1219

Keywords:

Urbanization, Energy Consumption, Economic Growth, Emissions, ARDL

Abstract [English]

This study empirically evaluates whether Green House Gases (GHGs) significantly increase with the rising population and urban growth in Nigeria. In addition, the study examine whether the energy demand also influences Nigerian contribution of global pollution emissions. The results of the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) cointegration test indicated long-run and stable relationships among the variables. For affluence, we find evidence that, in the long run, domestic per capita income significantly increases carbon dioxide emissions and then falls after a certain extreme point, providing evidence of an inverted EKC hypothesis in Nigeria. The EKC finding was further supported by appropriate inverted U test. The results also demonstrated that both urbanisation and population change do not have a long term effect on emissions; although urbanisation seems to significantly raise emissions in the short-run.  Energy demand has been found to have a significantly positive elasticity effect on carbon dioxide emissions both in the long- and short-run. The short-run Granger causality results indicate that, all variables make a short-run adjustment to correct any deviation from the long-run equilibrium. In addition, analysis of the error correction models reveals that all of the variables contribute to their stable long-run relationship.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

References

Ahmad, N., & Wyckoff, A. (2003). Carbon dioxide emissions embodied in international trade of goods (No. 2003/15). OECD Publishing.

Akinbami, J. F., & Fadare, S. O. (1997). Strategies for sustainable urban and transport development in Nigeria. Transport Policy, 4(4), 237-245. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0967-070X(97)00022-X

Al-mulali, U., Binti Che Sab, C. N., & Fereidouni, H. G. (2012). Exploring the bi-directional long run relationship between urbanization, energy consumption, and carbon dioxide emission. Energy, 46(1), 156-167. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2012.08.043

Ang, J. B. (2008). Economic development, pollutant emissions and energy consumption in Malaysia. Jrnl. Policy Modeling, 30(2), 271-278. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2007.04.010

Arthur, J. A. (1991). International labor migration patterns in West Africa. Afr. Studies Review, 34(03), 65-87. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/524120

Aşıcı, A. A., & Acar, S. (2015). Does income growth relocate ecological footprint?. Eco. Indicators. http://dx.doi:10.1016/j.ecolind.2015.10.022 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2015.10.022

Belloumi, M. (2009). Energy consumption and GDP in Tunisia: cointegration and causality analysis. Energy Policy, 37(7), 2745-2753. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2009.03.027

Dodman, D. (2009). Blaming cities for climate change? An analysis of urban greenhouse gas emissions inventories. Environment and Urbanization, 21(1), 185-201. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/0956247809103016

Chen, H., Jia, B., & Lau, S. S. Y. (2008). Sustainable urban form for Chinese compact cities: Challenges of a rapid urbanized economy. Habitat Internat., 32(1), 28-40. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.habitatint.2007.06.005

Cole, M. A., & Neumayer, E. (2004). Examining the impact of demographic factors on air pollution. Population and Environment, 26(1), 5-21. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1023/B:POEN.0000039950.85422.eb

Commoner, B., Corr, M., & Stamler, P. J. (1971). The causes of pollution. Environment: Science and Policy for Sustainable Devel., 13(3), 2-19.

Dietz, T., & Rosa, E. A. (1997). Effects of population and affluence on CO2 emissions. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 94(1), 175-179. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.94.1.175

Ehrlich, P. R., & Holdren, J. P. (1971). Impact of population growth. Sci., 171, 1212–1217 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1126/science.171.3977.1212

Engle, R. F., & Granger, C. W. (1987). Co-integration and error correction: representation, estimation, and testing. Econometrica: Jrnl. Econ. Soc., 251-276.

Fieller, E. C. (1954). Some problems in interval estimation. Jrnl. Royal Stat. Soc.. Series B (Methodological), 175-185. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2517-6161.1954.tb00159.x

Friedmann, J. (2002). The world city hypothesis. The City: Crit. Concepts Social Sci., 151-163.

Engle, R. F., & Granger, C. W. (1987). Co-integration and error correction: representation, estimation, and testing. Econometrica: Jrnl. Econ. Soc., 251-276. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/1913236

Esteve, V., & Requena, F. (2006). A cointegration analysis of car advertising and sales data in the presence of structural change. Internat. Jrnl. Econ. Bus., 13(1), 111-128. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/13571510500520036

Granger, C. W. (1988). Some recent development in a concept of causality. Jrnl. Econ., 39(1), 199-211. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(88)90045-0

Grossman GM, Krueger AB. (1991). Economic growth and the environment. Q. Jrnl. Econ., 110(2), 353–77.

Hassan, K., & Salim, R. (2015). Population ageing, income growth and CO2 emission: Empirical evidence from high income OECD countries. Jrnl. Econ. Stud., 42(1), 54-67. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1108/JES-04-2013-0046

Hobijn, B., Franses, P. H., & Ooms, M. (2004). Generalizations of the KPSS‐test for stationarity. Statistica Neerlandica, 58(4), 483-502. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9574.2004.00272.x

Holden, E., & Norland, I. T. (2005). Three challenges for the compact city as a sustainable urban form: household consumption of energy and transport in eight residential areas in the greater Oslo region. Urban stud., 42(12), 2145-2166. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/00420980500332064

Ibrahim, M. H., & Law, S. H. (2014). Social capital and CO2 emission-output relations: A panel analysis. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 29, 528-534. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2013.08.076

Ibrahim, M. H., & Law, S. H. (2015). Institutional Quality and CO2 Emission–Trade Relations: Evidence from Sub‐Saharan Africa. S. Afr. Jrnl. Econ.

Idowu, O.O. (2013). Challenges of Urbanization and Urban Growth in Nigeria. Amer. Jrnl. Sustainable Cities and Soc., 1(2), 79-95.

Jibrilla, A.A. (2010). Savings and Domestic Investment in Nigeria: A causal relationship. ADSU Jrnl. Social and Devel. Stud., 4(1), 112-121.

Jiboye, A. D. (2011b). Achieving Sustainable Housing Development in Nigeria: A Critical Challenge to Governance. Internat. Jrnl. of Humanities and Social Sci. 1(9), 121-127.

Jiboye, A. D. (2011c). Ensuring Sustainable Development through an Effective Housing Delivery Process in Nigeria. Afr. Jrnl. Social Sci.. 1(2), 36- 45.

Jiboye, A. D. (2011d). Sustainable Urbanization: Issues and Challenges for Effective Urban Governance in Nigeria. Jrnl. of Sustainable Devel., 4(6), 211-224. DOI: https://doi.org/10.5539/jsd.v4n6p211

Jiboye, A.D. & Ogunshakin, L.O. (2011). Urban growth Challenges in Nigeria: Implications for Environmental Sustainability. Brit. Jrnl Humanities and Social Sci., 1(2), 16-27.

Katircioğlu, S. T. (2014). Testing the tourism-induced EKC hypothesis: The case of Singapore. Econ. Modelling, 41, 383-391. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2014.05.028

Liddle, B. (2004). Demographic dynamics and per capita environmental impact: using panel regressions and household decompositions to examine population and transport. Population and Environment, 26(1), 23-39. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1023/B:POEN.0000039951.37276.f3

Liddle, B., & Lung, S. (2010). Age-structure, urbanization, and climate change in developed countries: revisiting STIRPAT for disaggregated population and consumption-related environmental impacts. Population and Environment, 31(5), 317-343. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11111-010-0101-5

Lind, J. T., & Mehlum, H. (2010). With or Without U? The Appropriate Test for a U‐Shaped Relationship*. Oxford Bull. Econ. Statist., 72(1), 109-118. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0084.2009.00569.x

Lindgren, M. (2012). Total population for countries and territories. Penn World Tables version 3. (PWT 3.0). The data are available at www.gapminder.org/ downloads/ documentation/gd003

Markandya, A., & Chiabai, A. (2009). Valuing climate change impacts on human health: empirical evidence from the literature. International Journal of Environmental Res. Publ. Health, 6(2), 759-786. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph6020759

Martínez-Zarzoso, I., Bengochea-Morancho, A., & Morales-Lage, R. (2007). The impact of population on CO2 emissions: Evidence from European countries. Environmental and Resource Econ., 38(4), 497-512. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10640-007-9096-5

Martínez-Zarzoso, I., & Maruotti, A. (2011). The impact of urbanization on CO2 emissions: Evidence from developing countries. Ecol. Econ., 70(7), 1344-1353. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2011.02.009

Narayan, P. K. (2005). The saving and investment nexus for China: evidence from cointegration tests. Appl. Econ., 37(17), 1979-1990. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840500278103

Olajire, A. A., Azeez, L., & Oluyemi, E. A. (2011). Exposure to hazardous air pollutants along Oba Akran road, Lagos–Nigeria. Chemosphere, 84(8), 1044-1051. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chemosphere.2011.04.074

Olivier, J.G.J. & Janssens-Maenhout, G. (2014). CO2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion (Part III). In: CO2 emissions from fuel combustion, 2014 Edition, pp. III.1-III.51. Internat. Energy Agency, Paris.

O'Neill, B. C., Dalton, M., Fuchs, R., Jiang, L., Pachauri, S., & Zigova, K. (2010). Global demographic trends and future carbon emissions. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 107(41), 17521-17526. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1004581107

O'Neill, B. C., Liddle, B., Jiang, L., Smith, K. R., Pachauri, S., Dalton, M., & Fuchs, R. (2012). Demographic change and carbon dioxide emissions. The Lancet, 380(9837), 157-164.

Patz, J. A., Gibbs, H. K., Foley, J. A., Rogers, J. V., & Smith, K. R. (2007). Climate change and global health: quantifying a growing ethical crisis. Econ. Health, 4(4), 397-405. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10393-007-0141-1

Pesaran, M. H., & Pesaran, B. (1997). Working with Microfit 4.0: interactive econometric analysis; [Windows version]. Oxford University Press, Oxford.

Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Jrnl Appl. Econ., 16(3), 289-326. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.616

Poumanyvong, P., & Kaneko, S. (2010). Does urbanization lead to less energy use and lower CO2 emissions? A cross-country analysis. Ecol. Econ., 70(2), 434-444. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2010.09.029

Rezai, A., Foley, D. K., & Taylor, L. (2012). Global warming and economic externalities. Econ. Theory, 49(2), 329-351. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00199-010-0592-4

Sasabuchi, S. (1980). A test of a multivariate normal mean with composite hypotheses determined by linear inequalities. Biometrika, 67(2), 429-439. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/biomet/67.2.429

Shaaban, M., & Petinrin, J. O. (2014). Renewable energy potentials in Nigeria: meeting rural energy needs. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 29, 72-84. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2013.08.078

Stock, J. H., & Watson, M. W. (1993). A simple estimator of cointegrating vectors in higher order integrated systems. Econometrica: Jrnl. Econometric Soc., 783-820. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/2951763

United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2013). World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision, DVD Edition.

Vandevyvere, H., & Stremke, S. (2012). Urban planning for a renewable energy future: Methodological challenges and opportunities from a design perspective. Sustainability, 4(6), 1309-1328. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/su4061309

Wang, D., & Tomek, W. G. (2007). Commodity prices and unit root tests. Amer. Jrnl. Agric. Econ., 89(4), 873-889. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8276.2007.01031.x

World Bank group (2013). World Development Indicators 2013. World Bank online databank. The data are available at http://data.worldbank.org/indicator

World Bank group (2014). World Development Indicators 2014. World Bank online databank. The data are available at http://data.worldbank.org/indicator

Yoo, S. H. (2005). Electricity consumption and economic growth: Evidence from Korea. Energy Policy, 33(12), 1627-1632. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2004.02.002

York, R., Rosa, E. A., & Dietz, T. (2003). STIRPAT, IPAT and ImPACT: analytic tools for unpacking the driving forces of environmental impacts. Ecol. Econ. 46(3), 351-365. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0921-8009(03)00188-5

Yusuf, K. A., Oluwole, S., Abdusalam, I. O., & Adewusi, G. R. (2013). Spatial Patterns of Urban Air Pollution in an Industrial Estate, Lagos, Nigeria, Internat. J. Engin. Invent., 2(4), PP: 01-09.

Downloads

Published

2018-09-30

How to Cite

Jibrilla, A. A. (2018). ESTIMATING ATMOSPHERIC CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS THRESHOLD FOR NIGERIA: A GUIDE FOR ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY. International Journal of Research -GRANTHAALAYAH, 6(9), 178–195. https://doi.org/10.29121/granthaalayah.v6.i9.2018.1219