ANALYSIS OF TREND OF THE PRECIPITATION DATA: A CASE STUDY OF KANGRA DISTRICT, HIMACHAL PRADESH

Arijit Ganguly; Ranjana Ray Chaudhuri; Prateek Sharma

doi:10.29121/granthaalayah.v3.i9.2015.2948

Authors

Arijit Ganguly Environmental Studies & Resources Management, Department of Natural Resources, TERI University, Vasant-Kunj, New-Delhi-110070
Ranjana Ray Chaudhuri Associate Professor, Cocacola Department of Regional Studies, TERI University, Vasant-Kunj, New-Delhi-110070
Prateek Sharma Dean, Faculty of Applied Sciences, TERI University, Vasant-Kunj, New-Delhi-110070

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.29121/granthaalayah.v3.i9.2015.2948

Keywords:

Trend Analysis, Mann-Kendall Test, Sen’s Slope Estimator, Mean Annual And Monthly Rainfall

Abstract [English]

The current study is carried out to determine the potential trend of rainfall and assess its significance in Kangra district of Himachal Pradesh. Rainfall is a key characteristic of any watershed which plays a significant role in flood frequency, flood control studies and water planning and management. In this case study,mean monthly rainfall has been analysed to determine the variability in magnitude over the period 1950-2005. Trend in mean monthly precipitation data and mean seasonal trends are analysed using Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimation for the data period 1950-2005. Analysis of monthly trend in precipitation shows negative trend for the months of July, August, September and October in all the rain gauge stations. However, the falling trend is significant for the month of August for Dharamshala(0.05 level of significance). Interestingly the month of June shows rising trend of rainfall in all the stations, however, at Dharamshala the trend is significant (0.01 level of significance). The winter rainfall in the month of January and February record decreasing trend, with DeraGobipur and Kangra recording significant decreasing trend for the month of January at 0.01 level of significance and 0.05 level of significance respectively. Trend analysis for annual rainfall data shows significant negative trend for Dharamshala.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

References

Auffhammer M, Ramanathan V, Vincent J R., 2006. Integrated model shows that atmospheric brown clouds and greenhouse gases have reduced rice harvests in India. Proc. National Academic Science, 103: 19668–72. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0609584104

Basistha A, Arya D.S., Goel N.K., 2008. Analysis of historical changes in rainfall in the Indian Himalayas, International Journal of Climatology,29:555-572. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1706

Douglas E B, Vogel R M, Knoll C N., 2000. Trends in floods and low flows in the United States: impact of serial correlation. Journal of Hydrology, 240: 90–105. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1694(00)00336-X

Duhan D, Pandey A., 2013. Statistical Analysis of long term spatial and temporal trends of precipitation during 1901-2002 at Madhya Pradesh, India Atmospheric research, Elsevier, 122: 136-49. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2012.10.010

Government of Himachal Pradesh. 2009. District Human Developmental Report, Kangra, Planning Commission, Government of India, Planning Department, Himachal Pradesh, Department of Agricultural Economics,CSK Himachal Pradesh Agricultural University, Kangra. http://hpplanning.nic.in/HDR-Kangra.pdf. Access Date: 6th July, 2013.

Hamed K H, Rao A R. 1998.A modified Mann–Kendall trend test for autocorrelated data. Journal of Hydrology, 204: 182–96.

IPCC. 2007. Climate change 2007, climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Working Group II contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report. Summary for policymakers, 23.

Jain S K, Kumar V. 2012.Trend analysis of rainfall and temperature data for India. Current Science, 102 (1): 37-49.

Joshi M K, Pandey A C. 2011. Trend and spectral analysis of precipitation over India during 1901–2000.Journal of Geophysical Research.116. http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2010JD014966. Access date: 18th June, 2013. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JD014966

Kendall M G. 1975.Rank correlation methods. Charles Griffin, London, 4: 202.

Kharmeshu N. 2012. Trend detection in annual temperature and precipitation using Mann-Kendall test-a case study to assess climate change on select states in North-eastern United States. Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Pennsylvania: 1-24.

Longobardi A, Villani P. 2010. Trend analysis of annual and seasonal rainfall time series in the Mediterranean area. International Journal for Climatology, 30: 1538-46.

Mann H B. 1945.Non-parametric test against trend.Econometrica, 13: 245–59.

Mondal A, Kundu S, Mukhopadhyay A.2012. Rainfall trend analysis by Mann-Kendall Test: A Case Study of North-Eastern Part of Cuttack District, Orissa. International Journal of Geology, Earth and Environmental Sciences, ISSN:2277-2081, 2(1): 70-8.

Parthasarathy B, Munot A, Kothawale D. 1988. Regression model for estimation of Indian food grain production from summer monsoon rainfall. Agriculture Forest Meteorology, 42: 167–82.

Ramanathan V et al. 2005.Atmospheric brown clouds: impacts on South Asian climate and hydrological cycle. Proc. National Academic Science, 102: 5326–33.

Rupa Kumar K., Pant G B, Parthasarathy B, Sontakke N A. 1992. Spatial and sub seasonal patterns of the long term trends of Indian summer monsoon rainfall. International Journal of Climatology, 12: 257–268.

Salmi T, Määttä A, Anttila P, Ruoho-Airola T, Amnell T. 2002.Detecting Trends of Annual Values of Atmospheric Pollutants by the Mann-Kendall Test and Sen’s Slope Estimates -The Excel Template Application Makesens. Finnish Meteorological Institute Publications on Air Quality No. 31, Helsinki, Finland: 1-35.

Sen P K. 1968.Estimates of the regression coefficient based on Kendall's tau. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 63: 1379–89.

Yue S, Pilon P, Cavadias G. 2002a. Power of the Mann–Kendall and Spearman's rho tests for detecting monotonic trends in hydrological series. Journal of Hydrology, 259: 254–71.

Yue S, Pilon P, Phinney B. 2003. Canadian stream flow trend detection: impacts of serial and cross-correlation. Hydrological Science Journal, 48(1): 51-63. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1623/hysj.48.1.51.43478

Yunling H, Yiping Z. 2005. Climate change from 1960 to 2000 in the Lancang River Valley, China. Mountain Research and Development 25 (4): 341–8. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1659/0276-4741(2005)025[0341:CCFTIT]2.0.CO;2