EFFECT OF POPULATION DYNAMICS ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN TANZANIA: 1990-2022
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.29121/granthaalayah.v11.i11.2023.5396Keywords:
Population Dynamics, Economic Growth, VECM, TanzaniaAbstract [English]
The study analysed the correlation between population dynamics and economic expansion in Tanzania using time series information covering from 1990 - 2022. The study was influenced by persistent population growth in the country. Comprehending this matter will offer a dependable basis for formulating development policies. The author sought to determine the effect of crude birth rate, crude death rate and net migration on her economic growth. VECM was employed for estimation. Stationarity test results demonstrated that variables became stationary after being differentiated twice and cointegration test results detected that the variables were cointegrated at rank 5 which compelled the use of the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The VECM findings showed that the long-term expansion of the economy is significantly affected by population dynamics. Moreover, crude birth rate positively affects economic growth while crude death rate and net migration negatively affect economic growth. The study recommends that the government should control the outflow of Tanzanians to other countries to avoid loss of human resources, the government is supposed to pump in more resources on the health sector to minimize and delay mortalities thus increasing output growth and the government must ensure that birth rate is controlled although it is positively related with economic growth, precaution must be observed.
Downloads
References
Aidi and Ngwudiobu, M. (2016). Population and Economic Growth in Nigeria: Is There Empirical Evidence of Causality? International Journal of Advances in Social Science and Humanities, 4(2), 59-66.
Akintunde and Oladeji, I. (2013). Population Dynamics and Economic Growth. Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development, 4(13), 148-157.
Asian Development Bank (1997). "Emerging Asia: Changes and Challenges". Manila: ADB.
Bank of Tanzania. (2022). Economic Bulletin for the Quarter Ending December, 54(4).
Becketti, S. (2013). Introduction to Time Series Using Stata. College Station, TX: Stata Press, 4905, 176-182.
Bloom and Sevilla, J. (2001). The Effect of Health on Economic Growth: Theory and Evidence. National Bureau of Economic Research. No. w8587. https://doi.org/10.3386/w8587 DOI: https://doi.org/10.3386/w8587
Degu (2020). The Nexus Between Population and Economic Growth in Ethiopia. International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research, 44-50. https://doi.org/10.25103/ijbesar.123.05 DOI: https://doi.org/10.25103/ijbesar.123.05
Drinkwater, S. L., Lotti, P. E., and Pearlman, J. (2003). The Economic Empact of Migration: A Survey. Flowela Working Paper 8. Hamburg Institute of International Economics. Germany.
Engle and Granger, W. (1987). Cointegration and Error-Correction Representation, Estimation and Testing. Econometrica, 55(2), 251-76. https://doi.org/10.2307/1913236 DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/1913236
Gujarati (2004). Basic Econometrics. 4th Ed. New York: The McGraw-Hill.
Gujarati and Porter, D. (2009). Basic Econometrics (5th Ed), New York: McGraw-Hill.
Hakeem and Ikenna, M. (2016). Population Dynamics and Economic Growth in Nigeria. Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development, 7(15), 16-24.
Ishumael and Akarro, R. (2022). Does Population Dynamics Have Any Impact on Economic Growth? Evidence from Tanzania. International Journal of Engineering, Business and Management (IJEBM), 6(1), 70-76. https://doi.org/10.22161/ijebm.6.1.8 DOI: https://doi.org/10.22161/ijebm.6.1.8
Klasen and Lawson, D. (2007). "The Impact of Population on Economic Growth and Poverty Reduction in Uganda." Working Paper.
Kothari, R. (2004). Research methodology: Methods and Techniques. New Delhi: New Age International.
Liddle, B. (2003). "Developing Country Growth Collapse Revisited: Demographic Influences and Regional Differences" MPIDR Working Paper WP 2003-007. https://doi.org/10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2003-007 DOI: https://doi.org/10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2003-007
Loiboo and Osoro, N. (2021). Population and Economic Growth in Tanzania. Tanzanian Journal of Population Studies and Development, 28(2), 20-42. http://www.journals.udsm.ac.tz/index.php/tjpsd/article/view/4850
Malthus, R. (1978). Iatrogenic Fluorosis. Australian and New Zealand Journal of Medicine, Medicine, 8(5), 528-531. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1445-5994.1978.tb02594.x DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1445-5994.1978.tb02594.x
National Bureaus of Statistics, (2022). Tanzania in Figures 2022; The United Republic of Tanzania. The National Bureau of Statistics Report of 2022.
Ogunbadejo and Zubair, A. (2021). Effect of Crude Birth Rate on Economic Growth in Nigeria. Journal of Economics and Allied Research, 6(4), 58-67.
Rizk, L. (2018). Does Demographic Transition Matter for Economic Growth? Evidence from Egypt. The Journal of North African Studies, 1-24. https://doi.org/10.1080/13629387.2018.1480944 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/13629387.2018.1480944
Savas, B. (2008). "The Relationship between Population and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from the Central Asian Economies" OAKA, 3(6), 161-183.
Solow, R. (1956). A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 70 (1), 65-94. https://doi.org/10.2307/1884513 DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/1884513
Turtiyus and Peter, A. (2015). Impact of Population Dynamics on Economic growth in Nigeria (1980-2010). IOSR Journal of Humanities and Social Science (IOSR-JHSS), 20(4), 115-123.
World Bank (2014). World Bank Development Indicator. Washington DC, World Bank, USA.
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2023 Sanga Dismas, Dr. Wainyaragania Kennedy Arthur, Dr. Warioba Robby Timoth
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
With the licence CC-BY, authors retain the copyright, allowing anyone to download, reuse, re-print, modify, distribute, and/or copy their contribution. The work must be properly attributed to its author.
It is not necessary to ask for further permission from the author or journal board.
This journal provides immediate open access to its content on the principle that making research freely available to the public supports a greater global exchange of knowledge.
