Article Type: Research Article Article Citation: Lusi Hidayah, Nasikh, and Imam Mukhlis. (2020). HOW GOOD IS THE FOOD SECURITY IN INDONESIA. International Journal of Research -GRANTHAALAYAH,
8(7), 308-312. https://doi.org/10.29121/granthaalayah.v8.i7.2020.597 Received Date: 28 June 2020 Accepted Date: 31 July 2020 Keywords: Food Security Consumption Data Panel Fixed Effect Model This research aims to provide analysis on the effect of farmers’ terms of trade, agricultural land area, gross regional domestic product and population on food security in 34 provinces in Indonesia. The data analysis method used is data panel model with fixed effects model. The results showed that the farmers’ terms of trade variable and The agricultural land area had no significant effect on food security in various provinces in Indonesia. Gross regional domestic product variable had significant effect on food security in various provinces in Indonesia. It showed that a high gross regional domestic product variable could decrease the amount of public food expenditure, which means lower consumption incurred for food causes food security to rise. Meanwhile, population variable had positive and significant effect on food security in various provinces in Indonesia, meaning an increase in population also increases the amount of public food consumption. Based on the results, it is recommended to find out how to stimulate various economic sectors in each province in which it could increase the amount of gross domestic product of each region. Better distribution of population could also affect the rate of food security in each province in Indonesia.
1. INTRODUCTIONFood is the primary
source of human needs. Every human being need food, food is the primary basic
human needs and its fulfillment is a part of human rights secured in the
Constitution of Republic of Indonesia of 1945 [1]. In-depth and sustainable research in the
urgency of food security is already feasible to conduct, as the aspects in food
security is very multidimensional. In jombang and probolinggo regencies, showing that the
commodity in probolinggo between demand and supply is
unbalanced, while in jombang, the commodity is only
sufficient for its own regency, which calls for a policy on fulfillment of food
supply to achieve sustainable food security [2]. From the explanation above, and also in
accordance with the instructions in the law number 18 about food, then
Indonesia is supposed to be a country with independent food sovereignty. the agricultural problems in China in which
China continues to develop into industrial and residential country causes
continual increase in the dependency of agricultural product import. This
causes a decrease in food security in China as well as a wage gap between
farmer households and non-farmer households, ultimately triggering social
anxiety [3]. Another thing that also need to be prioritized
in providing sources of food production is farmers, as farmers are the main
subjects of food provider. an
increasing rice farmers’ terms of trade would encourage farmers in producing
rice. In 2006-2008, the NTP of Rice in West Java and North Sumatera decreased,
while it increased in South Sulawesic [4]. Meanwhile agriculture is the dominant economy sector from the entire SAC, and
poverty and famine is the most serious problem faced by this region.
Agriculture is caught in a low equilibrium trap with low basic productivity,
supply shortage, high prices, low return for farmers, and area diversification,
causing a threat to food security [5]. Food safety in rural
communities is characterized by the economic activity in the agriculture sector
based on the local wisdom of the society. In this case, it can be said that
farmers and food security have a mutually influencing relationship. The data of
food consumption development in Indonesia is depicted in the following figure: Figure
1: Development
of food consumption in Indonesia Source: BPS, 2018 (processed) food expenditure towards the total expenditure could
be used as an indirect indicator of welfare, while in relation to food
security, the share of food expenditure is closely related to various measures
of food security, which is the level of consumption. Higher share of food
expenditure shows lower food security [6]. 2. MATERIALS AND METHODS2.1.
MATERIALS
The Preamble of the
1945 Constitution of The Republic of Indonesia mandated that the purpose of the
independence of Indonesia is to achieve social justice and prosperity of the
people [7]. One of the important elements in fulfilling the
prosperity of the people is sovereignty and independence in food availability.
Food is the primary mandatory needs for human to live. Food is all things
derived from the biological source of agricultural, plantations, forestry,
fisheries, livestock, waters, and water products, whether processed or
unprocessed that is allocated as food or drink for human consumption, including
food additives, raw food materials, and other materials used in the
preparation, processing, and/or manufacture of food or beverages [1]. Maslow’s
theory, which stated that humans are motivated to fulfill their needs. Those
needs are separated into several levels, from physiological needs like food as
the lowest to self-actualization as the highest. Food security is related with consumption pattern in terms of the share
in food expenses. Engel’s law stated that if there is no change in taste, then
the percentage of food expenses will decrease as the income raises. This is a
generalization that associates the share of food expenses with income [8]. 2.2. METHODS
The research object of
this study was taken from provinces in Indonesia, consisting of 34 regencies
from 2015 to 2018. The data used are secondary data, such as; Food Consumption
(Percent), Farmers’ Terms of Trade, Agricultural Land (Ha), Gross Regional
Domestic Product (billion), population (thousand). The data is obtained from
various data sources, such as; Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS) and Food
Security Service (DKP) , based
on chow test model, showed that the probability value is less than alpha, and from the result of the hausman
test showed that the probability is also less than alpha, then the appropriate
model is fixed effect model. The
result of the normality test showed that the probability is about 0.27, which
is higher than the alpha (0.5), so the residual is normal distribution. Then,
followed by multicollinearity test which indicated that the correlation value
between independent variables is less than 0.8, it can be said that
multicollinearity did not occur in the data. For non-heteroscedasticity test
which indicated that the probability is greater than 0.5, it can be concluded
that heteroscedasticity did not occur. For non-autocorrelation test, the result
from durbin watson table
indicated greater value, meaning that this test complies. for fixed effect model
is: y = (αit + ui) +
X 'itu β + V itu Where Y is the
dependent variable, X is the independent variable and ε is the term of
error. The notation i indicates the distribution of
the observed unit, t indicates the observation period, α indicates the
magnitude of the constant and notation β indicates the number of free
variable coefficient [9] Meanwhile, the fixed
effect model is: KPit = (αit + ui) + βiNTPit βiLPit + βiPDRBit + βiJPit εit Where KP is Food
Security (Food Consumption), NTP is Farmers’ Terms of Trade, LP is Agricultural
Land, PDRB is Gross Regional Domestic Product and JP is Population. 3. RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONSThe
result of data processing using fixed effect model on the data panel can be
written as follows: KP = 1.768.524 + 0.086095NTPit –
0.000000823LPit - 0.000131PDRBit + 0,002360JPit + v it (2.284.503) (0.062710) (0.000000123) (5.458.792) (2.915.352) The
numbers in the bracket show the value of t count. Adjusted R-Squared of 0.93, the Durbin Watson’s Statistic is
about 2,646,469 and F-Statistic of about 3,545,701. The estimation result above
indicates that PDRB and Population variables significantly affect food security
in every Provinces in Indonesia, while NTP and Agricultural Land variables do
not significantly affect food security in every Provinces in Indonesia. From 33
provinces, as many as 22 provinces experienced a decrease in NTP and 11
provinces experienced an increase in NTP. The greatest decrease in NTP was in
2018 in the Riau Province, which was about 11.63 percent, Meanwhile, West Nusa Tenggara was
the province with the greatest NTP increase of 3.20 percent. Overall, the rainbow exchange
rate decreases every year. It can be shown in the following figure: Figure
2: Development of Farmers’ Terms of Trade in Indonesia Source: BPS, 2018 (processed) NTP has significant effect towards farmers’ passion in performing
agricultural activities, and that also affect the food supply which will be
consumed by the people. Food reserves (food availability), one of the
indicators of food security according to GSFI (Global Security Food Index)
should also be paid attention to. If NTP continues to drop, it is feared that
it will affect food reserves, and its effect could worsen the condition of food
security in Indonesia [10] Referring to the laws
of food which stated that Indonesia should be a country with food sovereignty.
Therefore, in addressing this issue, the government should clearly pay
attention to the solving point. The agricultural land area development trend in
Indonesia also declines, based on the research result, agricultural land
negatively affects food security. If agricultural land declines, then food
consumption will rise. the
agricultural problems in China in which China continues to develop into
industrial and residential country causes continual increase in the dependency
of agricultural product import. This causes a decrease of food security in China [3]. The significant effect of population on food
security shows that population is an important instrument in determining the
rate of food security in various provinces in Indonesia, accordance with the
theory by Malthus (1998), which stated that food growth such as arithmetical
count and population growth such as geometrical progression, shows that as the
population growth increases, then food needs also increases. Therefore, population and its distribution also
affect food security. The connection between population and its distribution
can be seen to describe food distribution in an area and how the food is
distributed. the greatly dynamic
condition of the population surely affects the condition of food security in a
certain area and vice versa. The quantity of population in both provinces have
significant effects on the condition of food utilization and accessibility.
Until 2035, West Java will face food insecurity, while East Java will face food
security. Besides population variable, Gross Regional Domestic Products
variable also has significant effect, Figure 4: Comparison of
Gross Regional Domestic Products on food security (Food Consumption) Source: BPS, 2018 (processed) This is also closely
related to Engel’s Law which stated that if there
is no difference in taste, then the percentage of expenditure for food will
decrease as income increases If the
Gross Regional Domestic Products in each province in Indonesia increases, then
it could also help increasing food security in that area. Based on the research
results, it can be concluded that to increase the value of Economic Growth in
each provinces in Indonesia, in this case to increase the food security in that
area, the highest PDRB is in DKI Jakarta, and it is
in line with the food security in DKI Jakarta, whereas the food expenditure in
2018 is about 57.05%, while the lowest PDRB is in East Nusa Tenggara, which is
around 18446,78 billion Rupiah in 2018. In terms of food security, East Nusa
Tenggara shows a decrease, in which the food security continues to drop each
year. It is shown by the high food expenditure of about 59.68%, whereby East
Nusa Tenggara is the province with the lowest food security than the other
provinces in Indonesia [6]. In this case, the problem is how to increase
the income in order to reinforce food security in every province in Indonesia. 4. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONSThe research results
conclude that Farmers’ Terms of Trade (NTP) and Agricultural land area
does not significantly affect food
security in each province in Indonesia. Moreover,
Gross Regional Domestic Products (PDRB) has negative and significant effect,
while population has positive and significant effect on food security in each
province in Indonesia, it can
be said that as the income of the society increases, then the expenditure of
food consumption will decrease and vice versa. In this case, the consideration
is how to stimulate economic growth in an area to increase the condition of
food security. Moreover, population has
positive and significant effect, in accordance with the theory of Malthus
(1998) which stated that food growth such as arithmetical count and population
growth such as geometrical progression, shows that as the population growth
increases, then food needs also increases. In addition, population could also
describe the food distribution in an area and how it is distributed. If there
is a lot of population and the food security is insecure, it causes a concern
of malnutrition, while the Laws of Food stated that every citizen has the right
to have access to proper food. The government also has the obligation to ensure
that. SOURCES OF FUNDINGThis research received no specific grant from any funding agency in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors. CONFLICT OF INTERESTThe author have declared that no competing interests exist. ACKNOWLEDGMENTNone. REFERENCES
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