Granthaalayah
CROP DIVERSIFICATION IS ONE OF THE REFERENTIAL PATTERNS FOR ENHANCED CROP PRODUCTION: A SECONDARY STUDY ON PURBA & PASCHIM MEDINIPUR DISTRICT IN WEST BENGAL

CROP DIVERSIFICATION IS ONE OF THE REFERENTIAL PATTERNS FOR ENHANCED CROP PRODUCTION: A SECONDARY STUDY ON PURBA & PASCHIM MEDINIPUR DISTRICT IN WEST BENGAL


Associate Professor Department of Commerce, Tamralipta Mahavidyalaya, Tamluk, Purba Medinipur, 721636, W.B., 8538014131, India

How to cite this article (APA): Jana, DK (2021). Crop diversification is one of the referential patterns for enhanced crop production: a secondary study on purba & paschim medinipur district in west bengal. International Journal of Research - GRANTHAALAYAH, 9(7), 32. doi: 10.29121/granthaalayah.v9.i7.2021.4065

Abstract

Crop diversification is a planned innovative approach to maximize land usage with optimum crop production to aim at minimizes losses of seasonal and other impacts on crop. India being one of the biggest countries of agricultural economy and West Bengal, although tiny in size, is one of the biggest producers of few agricultural produces like rice, potato, oil seed etc. Within West Bengal, undivided Midnapore retained a significant role in agricultural produce. After division of the district in to Purba & Paschim Medinipur during 2000, most of the cultivable land is within Paschim Medinipur. Although Puraba Medinipur has some pocket areas that has good reputation of cultivation. The Crop diversification is the need for the hour for small cultivable area. In this particular scenario, this study has tried to focus on the state of crop diversification in the Purba Medinipur district with a comparative study on Paschim Medinipur district because of its history of its erstwhile geographical tie up. At the same time, it has also attempted to find out the effect of crop diversification on crop production. In this particular aspect this study has focused on the condition of this particular aspect on undivided Midnapore district also. It has found that crop diversification on the basis of principal food crop in Purba Medinipur district has significantly positive relationship with production but has insignificant negative relationship in between crop diversity of rice with its production. In Paschim Medinipur and and undivided Medinipur there has been positive relationship between crop diversity and crop production in both principal food crops and rice. This has attracted to conclusive remark that division of district has impaired the scope of crop diversification of Purba Medinipur district but it has sufficient space to improve it as the relationship has indicated positive direction to that end although negative direction in rice crop would be matter further research

Keywords

Crop Diversificaion, Optimum Crop Production, Crop Area, Minimum Loss, Purba Medinipur, Paschim Medinipur, Undivided Midnapore

INTRODUCTION

Crop diversity is planned to have more diversified crop of choice with a given land area so that usage of land can be optimize with minimum risk of crop loss as well as income loss. The reported cropped area in India was 198.36 million hectares out of total reported land underutilization to the tune of 307.82 m.h. during 2014-15 (Agriculture statistics, GOI, 2018). It has estimated more than 64.44% land that has been under crop cultivation. The net area sown was 140.13 m.h and area sown more than one was 58.23 m.h. The gross irrigated area was 96.46 m.h. More than one irrigated land was 28.07 m.h. during that time. The crop diversification is meant for more economic production of crops under the patronage of Govt. policy. Marketing facilities and technological inputs for diversification are being taken care by the Govt. initiative.

In West Bengal the total area under cultivation was estimated about 56 lakh hectares. The Net cropped area was 52.5 lakh hectares and the Gross cropped area is 99.73 lakh hectares with cropping intensity of 190 % (2018-19). (, )

In Purba Medinipur 2.9 lakh hectares area was under cultivable land in which net cropped area was 2.8 lakh hectares and gross cropped area was 5.33 hectares with cropping intensity of 187%. In Paschim Medinipur these have been 4.17, 3.86 and 8.32 lakh hectares respectively with cropping intensity of 216 % (2018-19) (, )

Rice, wheat, jowar, bajra types other cereals, Gram &Tur like pulses and potato being the principal food crop in both Purba & Paschim Medinipur district. Rice itself the staple food for most of the inhabitants of both the district. Again, rice has been cultivated on the basis Aus, Aman and Boro basis. So, crop diversification is a matter to be identified critically so that its impact plays crucial role in production of those particular crop included in the crop area of both these two districts under discussion

LITERATURE REVIEW

(Das, 2012), pointed out that in order to agricultural sustainability crop diversity is must. The adverse environmental impact as well as technological backwardness is major two constraints for crop diversification. In order to find valid inference to their study, they used tools like Gibb’s –Martin Index of crop diversification.

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Where, x= percentage of total cropped area occupied by each individual crop in hectares.

The value of indices has been classified into four groups ranging from High, Medium, Low and Very LowDiversified crops.

(Singh*, And, & Singh**, 2016), pointed out that risks related to yield and price risk have negative influences on farmer’s decision on area (acreage) of production. They further pointed out that Minimum support price (MSO)s are also playing very crucial role during decision taken by farmer for crop diversification.

They have analyzed growth rate by using exponential model Y=abt, t- time period, Y = Area/ production/ productivity, a= constant, b= regression coefficient, they have chosen Modified Entropy Index (MEI) as diversification measure.

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(Shiyani, Pandya, & *, 1998), interestingly found that relatively more crop diversification was there during earlier years than the later years. They have taken 1971- 1996 as study period. They have used Herfindal Index, Ogive Index, Entropy Index, Modified Entropy Index and Composite Entropy Index as crop diversification parameter. They concluded their inference on the basis of MEI, CEI,

Herfindahl Index (H.1.)

Herfindahl Index is the sum of squares of share area of each crop in the total cropped area:

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Where N is total number of crops and Pi represents acreage proportion of the i-th crop in total cropped area. As diversification increases, the Herfindahl Index decreases. The value lies between o and 1. Zero means maximum diversification. One means no diversification for this index.

Ogive Index (0.1.)

Tress (1938) used this index to measure diversity in the industry. It measures dispersions from benchmark of equal proportion of each crop. For example, if there are N crops, the norm used for measuring deviations is 1/N. The formula of computing

Ogive Index is as follows:

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Like H.I index it is also measure concentration. More of O.I indicates less of diversification.

Entropy Index (E.L)

Entropy Index is regarded as an inverse measure of concentration having logarithmic character. This index has been widely used by many research workers to measure diversification (e.g., Hackbart and Anderson, 1975; Singh etal., 1985; Gupta and Tewari. 1985).

Entropy Index is specified as:

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The value of index increases the diversification also increases. The upper bound value of this index equal to logN. where N= No. of crop, which is normally greater than one. However upper limit of this index is chosen on the basis of base of logarithm i.e no. of crop.

Modified Entropy Index (MEI): As discussed earlier

Composite Entropy Index (C.E.I): It is measured as follows:

I= M E I × {1-(1/N }

The C.E.I. has two components, viz., distribution and number of crops, or diversity. The value of Composite Entropy Index increases with the decrease in concentration and rises with the number of crops/activities. Both the components of index are bounded by zero and one and thus the value of C.E.I. ranges between zero and one

(Wedananta1, 2020), has described how inequality in income distribution and community welcome impacted by financial inclusion, investment propensity and capital expenditure of people. This study is pertinent for distribution nature of methodology for distribution as well as for inequality measurement.

(, 2011), stated that before taking crop diversification strategy for farmers, cautious market studies should be needed so that new variants would enable greater income generation than present varieties. It was also suggested while taking decision of crop diversifications strategy that would be fully suitable to the available land, labour and capital resources already with the farmers.

(Makate, Wang, Makate, & Mango, 2016), found that crop diversification having positive relationship on land size, farming expertise, assets, location advantage, agricultural extension service, output price information. They also suggested that increased diversity would improve crop productivity, income, food security and nutrition to the households.

(M, 2020), stated that crop diversification enable improved productivity in small firm size, income, resilience with climate change,employment, soil quality etc. At the same time it warned about market demand, uncertainty in price and supply inputs,fear of increased complexity etc which could be jeopardized the whole process.

(, 2021) referred agricultural diverdsification as change in cropping pattern or shifting towards non-farming operations like poultry farming, animal husbandry etc. These practices enable farmers to increase production to their farm size and higher income level

OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY

The crop diversification is one of the basic subsistence farming technology which is require to add on facilities using present area of farming with varietal, economic and profitable farm producing ability. By this scenario, this particular study aims at

  • To identify level of Crop Diversification and its implication on Crop Production in Purba Medinipur district,

  • To find out the level of Crop Diversification and its implication on Crop Production in Paschim Medinipur district,

  • To find out the level of Crop Diversification and its implication on Crop Production in Undivided Midinipur district,

HYPOTHESIS OF THE STUDY

H0: There is a positive significant relationship of crop diversification on crop production

H1: There is no positive significant relationship of crop diversification on crop production

DATA BASE AND METHODS OF THE STUDY

The Data taken for this study has been secondary in nature. It has taken from the District Statistical Handbook, Bureau of Applied Economics & Statistics, Govt. of W.B. The study has been conducted on the availability of the data. The study period is 1990 to 2013. No data still available in this particular area after this period in Govt sources. This study is being conducted in view to search the effect of crop diversity on the production of the crop. Among the crops there are two sub-groups have been chosen; principal food crop and rice itself. In order to find out the change in diversification of crops, if any, there has been an inter temporal analyses of diversification and its effect on production on the basis of division of Midnapore district in the year 2000. There are two sub analyses: one for undivided Midnapore i.e., prior 2000 conditions and after 2000 i.e after division of district into Purba Medinipur and Paschim Medinipur. Study has been started analysis on Purba Medinipur first, then Paschim Medinipur and at last on Undivided Midnapore.

In order to identify the crop diversification level, we have consulted four measures, namely, Herfindal Index (HI), Transform Herfindahl Index (THI), Entropy Index (EI) and Gibb’s Martin Index (GMI). As Herfindahl Index (HI) has measure level of concentration, so we use Transform Herfindal Index (THI) as its representative, although HI calculated to show the similarity with Gibb’s Martin Index of diversification in this study. Another Entropy Index has been calculated to have better idea of diversification with multiple techniques. In order to use diversification index in statistical analysis an average of THI and EI has been used as yardstick measure for diversification over the period.

In order to identify the testable hypotheses, a simple linear regression model has been fitted

Yt= a+bXt,

Y= Output/ Production of crop/rice, X= Crop diversification Index, a= intercept and b= coefficient of the regression, t= time.

An ANOVA statistic has been used in tabular form to see the level of relationship in term b coefficient and significance level of F value. At the same time t value and p value have been observed to have confirmatory idea of the result. A residual statistic for predictive productions has also been itemized to see the relation with actual production and thus on the overall relationship.

ANALYSES AND DISCUSSIONS

CROP DIVERSITY IN FOOD CROP IN PURBA MEDINIPUR DISTRICT

Table 1: Crop diversity Indices in Purba Medinipur during 2000-2013

Indices for Principal Food Crop

Indices for Rice Variants

YEAR

HI

THI

EI

GMI

Av: THI, HI

HI

THI

EI

GMI

Av: THI, HI

2000

0.88

0.12

0.13

0.88

0.125

0.52

0.48

0.34

0.52

0.41

2001

0.88

0.12

0.13

0.88

0.125

0.53

0.47

0.33

0.53

0.4

2002

0.96

0.04

0.00

0.96

0.02

0.52

0.48

0.33

0.52

0.405

2003

0.94

0.06

0.07

0.94

0.065

0.52

0.48

0.33

0.52

0.405

2004

0.92

0.08

0.09

0.92

0.085

0.49

0.51

0.34

0.50

0.425

2005

0.92

0.08

0.09

0.92

0.085

0.51

0.49

0.34

0.51

0.415

2006

0.91

0.09

0.10

0.91

0.095

0.48

0.52

0.35

0.48

0.435

2007

0.91

0.09

0.11

0.91

0.1

0.48

0.52

0.35

0.48

0.435

2008

0.92

0.08

0.10

0.92

0.09

0.50

0.50

0.34

0.50

0.42

2009

0.93

0.07

0.09

0.93

0.08

0.49

0.51

0.34

0.49

0.425

2010

0.92

0.08

0.09

0.92

0.085

0.52

0.48

0.33

0.52

0.405

2011

0.91

0.09

0.10

0.91

0.095

0.52

0.48

0.33

0.52

0.405

2012

0.94

0.06

0.08

0.94

0.07

0.50

0.50

0.34

0.50

0.42

2013

0.93

0.07

0.08

0.93

0.075

0.53

0.47

0.33

0.53

0.4

Mean

0.92

0.08

0.09

0.92

0.085

0.51

0.49

0.34

0.51

0.415

S. D

0.022

0.022

0.031

0.022

0.026

0.018

0.018

0.007

0.017

0.012

The crop diversity in Purba Medinipur district has been identified on the basis of principal food crops cultivated simultaneously or seasonal basis in the same or different crop field throughout the year. It is found that HI is shown much higher figure that reflects higher concentration of crop rather diversification. The diversification level is found very low; around 7% to 19% depends on the different measures on diversification used in this particular case. The THI are found almost identical in every year during 2000 to 2013. According to THI, it has been found ranges between 47% as lowest during 2001 and 2012 to the highest 52% during 2005 and 2006. The mean value in this case was 8% and s.d being .022. According to EI, it has been found varied through 13% during 2000 to 8% during 2013 with mean of 9% and s.d being .031.These two indices have been almost similar trend throughout study period. The GHI has also same result as HI/THI revealed.

In Rice variant, the diversification has shown much higher than the total principal selected food crops. According to THI /HI it has been almost varied between 47% to 52% though out the study period with a mean of 49% and s.d 0.18. The EI has shown little gloomy in this particular case. It has been exhibited almost around 34% over the study period with a mean of 34% and s.d being .007. The GMI has exactly the same as HI.

So, it can be said that crop diversification in Purba Medinipur district was significantly low after division of district though positively significant relation with the production and for particular Rice, diversification level was better but insignificantly related with the production.

THE CROP DIVERSIFICATIONS IN PASCHIM MEDINIPUR AFTER DISTRICT DIVIDED

The picture of crop diversification in paschim Medinipur during this time i.e after division of district has been reflected in the Table 2 . It has been found almost similar in terms of THI and EI over the period under study. They have been ranges between 20% to 25 % over the period. The THI has been found 23% on an average for whole study period with s.d being 0.02. The mean EI has 22% with s.d being same 0.02 for the study period. The Herfindal Index and Gibb’s Martin Index have shown same result again in this case also. As compared to Purba Medinipur district, the crop diversification in Paschim Medinipur district has been found better; almost three times higher.

According to the Rice diversification, it has been found that rice diversification is found lower than Purba Medinipur district. The THI is found as high as 49% during 2010 and lowest 40% during 2001, 2002with a mean value 43% and s.d being 0.03, The EI has been ranges as lowest as 30% during 2005 to the highest as many as 35% during 2010 with mean 33% and s.d being 0.01. The HI and GMI have been found same result as usual.

Thus, we found that so far principal food crop is concerns, the crop diversification in Pachim Medinipur has been much higher than the Purba Medinipur. The diversification of principal food crops in Purba Medinipur was significantly low as result suggested. But diversification for rice is slightly higher in Purba Medinipur than Paschim Medinipur.

Table 2: Crop diversity Indices in Paschim Medinipur during 2000-2013

Indices for Principal Food Crop

Indices for Rice Variants

YEAR

HI

THI

EI

G-MI

Av: THI, EI

HI

THI

EI

G-MI

Av: THI, EI

2000

0.77

0.23

0.23

0.77

0.23

0.57

0.43

0.33

0.57

0.76

2001

0.75

0.25

0.24

0.75

0.245

0.60

0.40

0.31

0.60

0.71

2002

0.74

0.26

0.24

0.74

0.25

0.60

0.40

0.31

0.60

0.71

2003

0.75

0.25

0.24

0.75

0.245

0.59

0.41

0.32

0.59

0.73

2004

0.76

0.24

0.23

0.76

0.235

0.58

0.42

0.32

0.58

0.74

2005

0.74

0.26

0.24

0.74

0.25

0.60

0.40

0.30

0.60

0.7

2006

0.75

0.25

0.22

0.75

0.235

0.59

0.41

0.31

0.59

0.72

2007

0.76

0.24

0.22

0.76

0.23

0.53

0.47

0.34

0.53

0.81

2008

0.80

0.20

0.18

0.80

0.19

0.55

0.45

0.33

0.55

0.78

2009

0.79

0.21

0.20

0.79

0.205

0.58

0.42

0.31

0.58

0.73

2010

0.77

0.23

0.21

0.77

0.22

0.51

0.49

0.35

0.51

0.84

2011

0.79

0.21

0.20

0.79

0.205

0.59

0.41

0.31

0.59

0.72

2012

0.80

0.20

0.19

0.80

0.195

0.56

0.44

0.32

0.56

0.76

2013

0.80

0.20

0.19

0.80

0.195

0.56

0.44

0.33

0.56

0.77

Mean

0.77

0.23

0.22

0.77

0.22

0.57

0.43

0.32

0.57

0.75

S. D

0.02

0.02

0.02

0.02

0.021

0.03

0.03

0.01

0.03

0.041

THE CROP DIVERSIFICATIONS IN UNDIVIDED MIDNAPORE DISTRICT BEFORE DIVISION OF DISTRICTS

The situation of crop diversification before division of district of Midnapore has been tabled in Table 3 . It has been evident that the scenario of diversification has been almost similar if those indices have been averaged and sorted out. The THI have been found little lower than the Paschim Medinipur but higher than the Purba Medinipur district. It has been 18% on an average for both THI and EI in Undivided Midnapore where it has been 23% and 22% respectively for Paschim Medinipur and 8% and 9% respectively in Purba Medinipur. Thus, Entropy Index (EI) has been also found lower than Paschim Medinipur but higher than Purba Medinipur. The result for Herfindal and Gibb’s Martin index are same in this case also.

The diversification in rice in undivided Midnapore has been found higher than Paschim Medinipur but lower than Purba Medinipur on an average for the study period. The THI and EI in undivided Midnapore district have been found to be 44% and 33% on an average with s.d being 0.024 and 0.014 respectively. The same for Paschim Medinipur have been 43% and 32% with s.d being 0.03 and 0.01 respectively. For Purba Medinipur those indices have been 49% and 34% on an average for the study period and s.d being 0.007 and 0.017 respectively.

Thus, we find that crop diversification in undivided Midnapore has matched the result of the gross trend of indices as a whole. The indices for principal food crops are found lower in undivided Midnapore than Paschim Medinipur but higher than the Purba Medinipur but for rice diversity it has been changed. It has been lower than Purba Medinipur but higher than Paschim Medinipur.

Table 3: Crop diversity Indices in Undivided Midnapore District 1990-2000

Indices for Principal Food Crop

Av: THI&EI

Indices for Rice Variants

Av: THI&EI

YEAR

HI

THI

EI

G-MI

0.145

HI

THI

EI

G-MI

1990

0.86

0.14

0.15

0.86

0.175

0.60

0.40

0.30

0.60

0.35

1991

0.83

0.17

0.18

0.83

0.18

0.59

0.41

0.31

0.59

0.36

1992

0.82

0.18

0.18

0.82

0.185

0.60

0.40

0.31

0.60

0.355

1993

0.82

0.18

0.19

0.82

0.19

0.57

0.43

0.32

0.57

0.375

1994

0.81

0.19

0.19

0.81

0.19

0.57

0.43

0.33

0.57

0.38

1995

0.81

0.19

0.19

0.81

0.19

0.56

0.44

0.34

0.56

0.39

1996

0.81

0.19

0.19

0.81

0.19

0.56

0.44

0.33

0.56

0.385

1997

0.81

0.19

0.19

0.81

0.2

0.56

0.44

0.33

0.56

0.385

1998

0.80

0.20

0.20

0.80

0.17

0.53

0.47

0.34

0.53

0.405

1999

0.83

0.17

0.17

0.83

0.185

0.53

0.47

0.34

0.53

0.405

2000

0.82

0.18

0.19

0.82

0.145

0.54

0.46

0.34

0.54

0.4

mean

0.82

0.18

0.18

0.82

0.14

0.56

0.44

0.33

0.56

0.30

s.d

0.015

0.015

0.013

0.015

0.015

0.024

0.024

0.014

0.024

0.019

IMPLICATION OF CROP DIVERSIFICATION ON PRODUCTION OF CROP

The implications of crop diversification on production have been segregated into three parts as per methodology of the study has taken care. These have been measured on Purba Medinipur, Paschim Medinipur and Undivided Midnapore before division of district. In each part there are sections –a) Identifying the relationship between diversification index and principal food crop production b) Identifying the relationship between diversification index and rice production in the district for specified study period.

6.1 In Table 4 it has been represented an ANOVA statistics of diversification index and total principal food crop. The table suggested that there is significant positive relationship between diversification index and principal food crops in Purba Medinipur district under study. That means if diversification of crop will be increased the production of the food crop will be enhanced significantly. In Table 5 , there has been a comparative statistic of predicted and actual crop production that indicated that actual production has been inconsistent and instable. This has pointed out that increased crop diversification may stabilize the production of principal food crop.

6.2 In Table 6 , the relationship between diversification index and rice has been reflected. The ANOVA statistics has shown that there is insignificant negative relationship between crop diversity with rice production in the district. The predicted value of rice production has also been established this relationship. Whenever actual production of rice has increased predicted value decreased and vice versa reflected in Table 7 . That implied that although crop diversification in Rice in Purba Medinipur has been found higher than Paschim Medinipur, still no positive implication has withstood the position in this respect.

6.3 The ANOVA statistics reflecting relationship between diversity index and principal food crop production in Paschim Medinipur, the foremost cropping intensified district, has been positive but insignificant as we found in Table 8 . Similarly, it has been found that predicted value of production greater in most of the year than the actual production (Table 9 ). So, it can be said that crop diversification has positive implication in this district but not significantly high.

6.4 The relationship between diversity index and rice production in Paschim Medinipur has been identified in Table 10 . It has been positive insignificant relationship between diversity index and production of rice in the district over the study period. This has been confirmed by Table 11 where the predicted value of production and actual production of rice has been compared. It has been found inconsistent relationship between the two series over the period of observation. But in most cases, it has been similar trend, although actual production has been found larger than predicted value in most of the years. Athough rice diversification and rice production in PaschimMedinipur has been insignificantly positive relationship still it has scope for further improvement.

6.5 In order to evaluate the conditions of such relationship we have tried to find out similar relationships in the undivided Midnapore district before its division on 2000. Table 12 exhibited that there was a positive significant relationship between diversity index and principal food crop production in the undivided Midnapore district before its division in 2000. The predicted value of production Table 13 of principal food crop has been higher in most of the years which has indicated potential scope of further improvement in production with greater diversity in crop production.

6.6 Similarly, we could identify the relationship between rice crop diversity index and rice production through Table 15; Table 14 , where we could find that there is positive significant relationship between diversity index and rice production in undivided Midnapore district before division of district. Moreover, the predicted value of rice production in most of the years have been lower than the predicted values that implied that more diversification is needed to have more actual production

CONCLUSIONS

Crop diversification is aim for sustainable production of crops. In Purba Medinipur district diversification indices for crops and rice itself are very low in value. The relationship between crop diversification index and production of crop in Purba Medinipur is significantly positive which meant for increased crop diversification will be increased more production. Though rice crop diversification has shown little high still has it scope for further improvement in this field as relationship found negative but insignificant. It has indicated that crop diversification is not enough to increase rice production in this district. Other parameters have to be considered. In Paschim Medinipore, the largest crop producing district and highest cropping intensity, has been established relatively higher crop diversification index on an average for principal food crop was concerned. Crop diversification in principal food crop has also shown positive insignificant relationship with total production, implied that increase diversification will surely have positive dimension on production but with limited scope. Another factor will have to be considered. The rice crop diversification has also similar trend with the production level in this district also. It has been felt that crop diversification as well as land area under cropping has much lower in Purba Medinipur district. After division of district, the scope of crop diversification in Purba Medinipur has reduced to a substantial limit. The crop diversification in undivided district before 2000 was as combination of both after division of district. The relationship between crop diversification and production has shown positive dimension though insignificant. In the case of rice also this has been true but significantly. Thus, it can be said that division of district has serious impact in rice crop diversification in Purba Medinipur district which turned out negative from positive significant relationship before division of the district. This may be due to lesser amount of crop field available in rice production in Purba Medinipur as well as other principal food crop as a whole. Thus, diversification in Purba Medinipur does not reveal good extent and thus has insignificant impact on production. Again, to mention that the calculated result for both Herfindahl Index and Gibb’s-Martin Index have been found same throughout study period. So, if one wishes to use Herfindahl Index can omit Gibb’s Martin Index or vice versa.

Table 4: ANOVA statistics Depicting Relationship between Diversity Index and Principal Crop Production in Purba Medinipur District

ANOVA

df

SS

MS

F

Significance F

Regression

1

290139.6

290139.6

5.270733

0.040504

Residual

12

660567.5

55047.29

Total

13

950707.1

Coefficients

Standard Error

t Stat

P-value

Lower 95%

Upper 95%

Lower 95.0%

Upper 95.0%

Intercept

680.4105

224.5929

3.029528

0.010476

191.0646

1169.756

191.0646

1169.756

X Variable 1

5800.547

2526.582

2.295808

0.040504

295.5974

11305.5

295.5974

11305.5

Table 5: Predicted Production of Principal Food Crop in Purba Medinipur District,2000-2013

Observation

Predicted Y

Actual output

1

1405.479

1701.8

2

1405.479

1771.6

3

796.4214

1060.4

4

1057.446

1070

5

1173.457

1138.6

6

1173.457

859.3

7

1231.462

1111.3

8

1260.465

910.8

9

1202.46

958.4

10

1144.454

1173.5

11

1173.457

1376.2

12

1231.462

1138.1

13

1086.449

1183.9

14

1115.451

1003.5

Table 6: ANOVA statistics Depicting Relationship between Diversity Index and Rice Production in Purba Medinipur District during 2000-2013

ANOVA

df

SS

MS

F

Significance F

Regression

1

28541.37

28541.37

1.283402

0.279396

Residual

12

266866.1

22238.84

Total

13

295407.4

Coefficients

Standard Error

t Stat

P-value

Lower 95%

Upper 95%

Lower 95.0%

Upper 95.0%

Intercept

2619.07

1410.554

1.856766

0.088051

-454.264

5692.404

-454.264

5692.404

X Variable 1

-3852.33

3400.496

-1.13287

0.279396

-11261.4

3556.713

-11261.4

3556.713

Table 7: Predicted Production of Rice in Purba Medinipur District,2000-2013

Observation

Predicted Y

Actual

1

1039.614

1240.2

2

1078.138

1269.6

3

1058.876

973.2

4

1058.876

1008.4

5

981.8294

1065.4

6

1020.353

786.7

7

943.3061

1045.3

8

943.3061

821.8

9

1001.091

879.9

10

981.8294

1038.1

11

1058.876

1228.8

12

1058.876

1010.2

13

1001.091

1060.3

14

1078.138

876.3

Table 8: ANOVA statistics Depicting Relationship between Diversity Index and Principal Food Crop Production in Paschim Medinipur District during 2000-2013

ANOVA

df

SS

MS

F

Significance F

Regression

1

215964.8

215964.8

0.693432

0.421264

Residual

12

3737323

311443.6

Total

13

3953288

Coefficients

Standard Error

t Stat

P-value

Lower 95%

Upper 95%

Lower 95.0%

Upper 95.0%

Intercept

1713.951

1601.662

1.070108

0.305623

-1775.77

5203.673

-1775.77

5203.673

X Variable 1

5939.708

7132.853

0.832725

0.421264

-9601.44

21480.86

-9601.44

21480.86

Table 9: Predicted Production of Principal Food Crop in Paschim Medinipur District,2000-2013

Observation

Predicted Y

Actual

1

3080.084

2560.8

2

3169.179

2829.3

3

3198.878

3432.4

4

3169.179

3104.2

5

3109.782

3052

6

3198.878

3193.3

7

3109.782

2676.3

8

3080.084

3710

9

2842.496

2435.1

10

2931.591

2034.3

11

3020.687

4230.5

12

2931.591

2949.1

13

2872.194

3375

14

2872.194

2560.8

Table 10: ANOVA statistics Depicting Relationship between Diversity Index and Rice Production in Paschim Medinipur District during 2000-2013

ANOVA

df

SS

MS

F

Significance F

Regression

1

36318.04

36318.04

1.429874

0.25488

Residual

12

304793.7

25399.47

Total

13

341111.7

Coefficients

Standard Error

t Stat

P-value

Lower 95%

Upper 95%

Lower 95.0%

Upper 95.0%

Intercept

709.9892

813.3967

0.87287

0.399864

-1062.25

2482.228

-1062.25

2482.228

X Variable 1

2595.086

2170.216

1.195773

0.25488

-2133.41

7323.58

-2133.41

7323.58

Table 11: Predicted Production of Rice in Paschim Medinipur District, 2000-2013

Observation

Predicted Y

Actual

1

1696.122

1344.3

2

1631.245

1441.1

3

1631.245

1551.8

4

1657.196

1508.2

5

1670.171

1736.8

6

1618.269

1629.6

7

1644.22

1798.8

8

1760.999

1798.9

9

1722.073

1856.7

10

1657.196

1756.5

11

1799.925

1718.6

12

1644.22

1774

13

1696.122

1880.2

14

1709.097

1742.6

Table 12: ANOVA statistics for Undivided Midnpore depicting relations between Diversity Index and Production

ANOVA

df

SS

MS

F

Significance F

Regression

1

1326798

1326798

5.853057

0.038654396

Residual

9

2040162

226684.7

Total

10

3366961

Coefficients

Standard Error

t Stat

P-value

Lower 95%

Upper 95%

Lower 95.0%

Upper 95.0%

Intercept

-806.0369748

1866.571

-0.43183

0.676027

-5028.513382

3416.439

-5028.51

3416.439432

X Variable 1

24763.40336

10235.73

2.419309

0.038654

1608.566599

47918.24

1608.567

47918.24012

Table 13: Predicted Value of Production with Actual Production in Undivided Midnapore

RESIDUAL OUTPUT

Actual Production

Observation

Predicted Y

1

2784.656513

2338.1

2

3527.558613

3578.7

3

3651.37563

3246

4

3775.192647

3446.7

5

3899.009664

3758.4

6

3899.009664

3660.7

7

3899.009664

4376.7

8

3899.009664

3942.9

9

4146.643697

3726.5

10

3403.741597

4323

11

3775.192647

4262.7

Table 14: ANOVA statistics for Undivided Midnpore depicting relations between Diversity Index and Rice Production

ANOVA

df

SS

MS

F

Significance F

Regression

1

286292.5

286292.5

5.539218

0.043054

Residual

9

465161.7

51684.63

Total

10

751454.1

Coefficients

Standard Error

t Stat

P-value

Lower 95%

Upper 95%

Lower 95.0%

Upper 95.0%

Intercept

-1145.61

1417.496

-0.80819

0.43982

-4352.2

2060.993

-4352.2

2060.993

X Variable 1

8748.153

3716.996

2.353554

0.043054

339.7231

17156.58

339.7231

17156.58

Table 15: Predicted Value with Actual Rice Production in Undivided Midnapore

Observation

Predicted Y

Actual

1

1916.248

1529.3

2

2003.73

2259.8

3

1959.989

2066.3

4

2134.952

2097.4

5

2178.693

2283.8

6

2266.174

2093.2

7

2222.433

2362

8

2222.433

2302

9

2397.396

2055.9

10

2397.396

2418.9

11

2353.656

2584.5

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